Allan Lichtman Predicts Kamala Harris Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Race

Allan Lichtman, the political historian famously dubbed the "Nostradamus of US presidential elections," has forecasted a victory for Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 US presidential race. In an interview with NDTV, Lichtman shared that Harris, the Democratic candidate, is poised to defeat her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, based on his renowned "13 Keys to the White House" model.

Lichtman has built a reputation for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections. His prediction model evaluates a series of 13 true or false statements covering various factors such as party mandate, economic performance, incumbency, foreign policy successes, and candidate charisma. According to the model, if six or more keys turn against the incumbent party, they are likely to lose the election.

For the 2024 election, Lichtman notes that Kamala Harris holds eight of the 13 keys, while Trump only has five. He explains that the Democratic Party has lost the "mandate" key due to their losses in the U.S. House elections and the "incumbency" key, with Joe Biden not seeking re-election. However, Harris has retained the "contest" key by avoiding a significant intra-party conflict for the nomination, despite some setbacks for the party.

Lichtman acknowledges that two keys related to foreign policy remain uncertain due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. He suggests that even if these keys turn against Harris, she would still retain a strong position with only five keys against her, one short of the threshold needed for a predicted defeat.

Addressing potential vulnerabilities in his prediction, Lichtman emphasizes that even unexpected developments in foreign policy are unlikely to change the overall outcome. He also points out that both short-term and long-term economic indicators favour Harris, noting that there has been no recession during the election year and that per capita economic growth under Biden has been significantly higher than in the previous two terms.

When asked if there was anything the Republicans could do to improve their chances, Lichtman confidently responded that there is "nothing they can do" to alter the outcome, according to his model.

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Lichtman’s prediction model, tested across multiple elections, including the controversial 2000 race between Al Gore and George W. Bush, continues to draw attention for its accuracy and unique methodology. While the model has generally been reliable, Lichtman acknowledges that no forecast is without uncertainty, but he remains convinced that Kamala Harris is set to win the 2024 US presidential election.

[Disclaimer: This content is based on expert predictions and does not represent a definitive outcome. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute political or financial advice.]